Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar faces Republican challenger Tano Tijerina in Texas's 28th congressional district, where mid-decade redistricting shifted the map toward a Republican lean with Trump carrying it by roughly 10 points in 2024. Cuellar's December 2025 pardon on prior federal charges and his March primary victory have sustained trader consensus around narrow Democratic margins, reflected in the clustered probabilities for 3-12 point wins. Recent polling averages show Cuellar ahead by low-to-mid single digits among likely voters, though the contest remains sensitive to turnout among Hispanic voters in South Texas counties and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics before November 3. Early voting begins October 19, with the final margin hinging on these factors.