Incumbent Republican John Carter secured reelection in Texas's 31st congressional district on November 3, 2026, with 53.8% of the vote against Democrat Justin Early's 44.9%, producing an 8.9-point margin that aligns with the dominant market outcome. The district's new boundaries, implemented after 2025 redistricting, reduced its prior Republican tilt compared with 2024 lines. Carter's long tenure, primary victory, and fundraising edge of roughly five-to-one supported his position, while the Green Party candidate drew minimal support. Trader consensus on the 5-10% Republican margin reflects these certified vote totals with 99% reporting. Late shifts in remaining ballots or certification disputes remain possible but improbable given the current spread.