Trader consensus positions Arman Tsarukyan as the leading candidate for Charles Oliveira’s next lightweight bout at 60% implied probability, driven by their prior split-decision clash at UFC 300 and Tsarukyan’s public callout for a BMF title rematch. Oliveira’s dominant unanimous-decision win over Max Holloway for the BMF belt at UFC 326 in March, followed by his eight-fight contract extension, has shifted focus toward a high-stakes eliminator in the crowded 155-pound division. Benoît Saint Denis sits second at 30% on the strength of his recent knockout streak and expressed openness to top contenders, while Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje trail further behind amid stylistic matchups and ranking considerations. No official UFC announcement has materialized as of mid-May, leaving room for shifts based on title-fight timing or injury updates.