**Strong labor market conditions and persistently elevated inflation readings are anchoring trader sentiment toward an overheating outcome for the US economy at year-end 2026.** As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1 percent—well below the 5.0 percent threshold—while headline CPI inflation registers 3.4 percent year-over-year, with recent monthly prints reflecting energy-driven pressures that peaked near 4.2 percent in May. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforces this view, placing the median unemployment forecast at 4.1 percent and PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for 2026, consistent with a tight labor market and above-target price pressures. These factors have driven the 77 percent market-implied probability for overheating, as traders price in sustained sub-5 percent unemployment alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Recent moderation in core measures offers limited scope for a rapid shift toward soft landing, while slack or stagflation scenarios remain heavily discounted given the resilient employment data. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications that could refine the inflation trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOverheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$91,175 Объем
$91,175 Объем
31 янв. 2027 г.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$91,175 Объем
$91,175 Объем
31 янв. 2027 г.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$30,247 Объем
77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$43,457 Объем
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$4,609 Объем
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,863 Объем
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Strong labor market conditions and persistently elevated inflation readings are anchoring trader sentiment toward an overheating outcome for the US economy at year-end 2026.**
As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1 percent—well below the 5.0 percent threshold—while headline CPI inflation registers 3.4 percent year-over-year, with recent monthly prints reflecting energy-driven pressures that peaked near 4.2 percent in May. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforces this view, placing the median unemployment forecast at 4.1 percent and PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for 2026, consistent with a tight labor market and above-target price pressures. These factors have driven the 77 percent market-implied probability for overheating, as traders price in sustained sub-5 percent unemployment alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Recent moderation in core measures offers limited scope for a rapid shift toward soft landing, while slack or stagflation scenarios remain heavily discounted given the resilient employment data. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications that could refine the inflation trajectory.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Открытие рынка: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$91,175Дата окончания
1 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Strong labor market conditions and persistently elevated inflation readings are anchoring trader sentiment toward an overheating outcome for the US economy at year-end 2026.**
As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1 percent—well below the 5.0 percent threshold—while headline CPI inflation registers 3.4 percent year-over-year, with recent monthly prints reflecting energy-driven pressures that peaked near 4.2 percent in May. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforces this view, placing the median unemployment forecast at 4.1 percent and PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for 2026, consistent with a tight labor market and above-target price pressures. These factors have driven the 77 percent market-implied probability for overheating, as traders price in sustained sub-5 percent unemployment alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Recent moderation in core measures offers limited scope for a rapid shift toward soft landing, while slack or stagflation scenarios remain heavily discounted given the resilient employment data. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications that could refine the inflation trajectory.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Объем
$91,175Дата окончания
1 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Strong labor market conditions and persistently elevated inflation readings are anchoring trader sentiment toward an overheating outcome for the US economy at year-end 2026.** As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1 percent—well below the 5.0 percent threshold—while headline CPI inflation registers 3.4 percent year-over-year, with recent monthly prints reflecting energy-driven pressures that peaked near 4.2 percent in May. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforces this view, placing the median unemployment forecast at 4.1 percent and PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for 2026, consistent with a tight labor market and above-target price pressures. These factors have driven the 77 percent market-implied probability for overheating, as traders price in sustained sub-5 percent unemployment alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Recent moderation in core measures offers limited scope for a rapid shift toward soft landing, while slack or stagflation scenarios remain heavily discounted given the resilient employment data. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications that could refine the inflation trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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