The Justice Department’s recent preparations to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro have sharply elevated trader expectations for charges, with the move tied to his reported role as defense minister in the 1996 downing of two civilian planes operated by the Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue group. Multiple U.S. officials confirmed that prosecutors are advancing the case toward a grand jury, with an announcement potentially scheduled for May 20 in Miami as part of broader Trump administration efforts to increase pressure on Havana. This development aligns with longstanding calls from Cuban-American lawmakers and victims’ families for accountability over the incident that killed four individuals. Traders appear to view the combination of official leaks, historical precedent for similar probes, and the current geopolitical context as making formal charges highly likely in the near term.