The high 89.5% market-implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s recent policy choices, which have directed security reviews and export controls at closed-source frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI while carving out open-weight systems. The White House AI framework explicitly exempts models whose weights are publicly released, and an August 2026 executive order plus supporting guidance prioritize American open-source leadership over restrictions. Industry pushback, including letters from Nvidia, Meta, and others, plus the introduction of the Open-Source AI Leadership Act, has further discouraged broad prohibitions amid enforcement challenges and competitive concerns over Chinese alternatives. Key catalysts ahead include any post-September updates to national security AI memoranda or procurement rules.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПравительство США запретит модель ИИ с открытым исходным кодом в 2026 году?
Правительство США запретит модель ИИ с открытым исходным кодом в 2026 году?
Да
11% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high 89.5% market-implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s recent policy choices, which have directed security reviews and export controls at closed-source frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI while carving out open-weight systems. The White House AI framework explicitly exempts models whose weights are publicly released, and an August 2026 executive order plus supporting guidance prioritize American open-source leadership over restrictions. Industry pushback, including letters from Nvidia, Meta, and others, plus the introduction of the Open-Source AI Leadership Act, has further discouraged broad prohibitions amid enforcement challenges and competitive concerns over Chinese alternatives. Key catalysts ahead include any post-September updates to national security AI memoranda or procurement rules.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Объем
$5,004Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high 89.5% market-implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s recent policy choices, which have directed security reviews and export controls at closed-source frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI while carving out open-weight systems. The White House AI framework explicitly exempts models whose weights are publicly released, and an August 2026 executive order plus supporting guidance prioritize American open-source leadership over restrictions. Industry pushback, including letters from Nvidia, Meta, and others, plus the introduction of the Open-Source AI Leadership Act, has further discouraged broad prohibitions amid enforcement challenges and competitive concerns over Chinese alternatives. Key catalysts ahead include any post-September updates to national security AI memoranda or procurement rules.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,004Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The high 89.5% market-implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s recent policy choices, which have directed security reviews and export controls at closed-source frontier models from labs like Anthropic and OpenAI while carving out open-weight systems. The White House AI framework explicitly exempts models whose weights are publicly released, and an August 2026 executive order plus supporting guidance prioritize American open-source leadership over restrictions. Industry pushback, including letters from Nvidia, Meta, and others, plus the introduction of the Open-Source AI Leadership Act, has further discouraged broad prohibitions amid enforcement challenges and competitive concerns over Chinese alternatives. Key catalysts ahead include any post-September updates to national security AI memoranda or procurement rules.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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