Recent indirect talks via Qatari and other mediators, including sessions on the sidelines of the September 2026 UN General Assembly, have centered on sequencing sanctions relief and blockade easing against verifiable limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment, stockpiles, and IAEA inspections, building on the June MOU that established a temporary ceasefire, Hormuz reopening framework, and 60-day (extendable) status quo on the nuclear program. President Trump rejected Iran’s latest seven-day proposal linking strait access to immediate economic concessions, while Tehran signals willingness to discuss dilution and non-weaponization commitments but resists front-loading new nuclear steps without relief. Trader consensus on moderate odds for a final deal by late 2026 reflects this leverage dynamic, mutual mistrust, and the absence of scheduled follow-on meetings, with potential movement tied to any verified progress on enriched material disposition or additional mediation rounds.