Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, presidential proclamations, or national emergency declarations required to activate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent April announcements confirmed implementation of automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December, mandated by the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump in late 2025, but this merely streamlines the existing draft-eligible pool without reinstating the draft itself—maintaining the all-volunteer force operational since 1973. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have not prompted draft legislation amid sufficient volunteer recruitment, though major escalation could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$251,086 Объем
$251,086 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$251,086 Объем
$251,086 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, presidential proclamations, or national emergency declarations required to activate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent April announcements confirmed implementation of automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December, mandated by the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump in late 2025, but this merely streamlines the existing draft-eligible pool without reinstating the draft itself—maintaining the all-volunteer force operational since 1973. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have not prompted draft legislation amid sufficient volunteer recruitment, though major escalation could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Объем
$251,086Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, presidential proclamations, or national emergency declarations required to activate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent April announcements confirmed implementation of automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December, mandated by the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump in late 2025, but this merely streamlines the existing draft-eligible pool without reinstating the draft itself—maintaining the all-volunteer force operational since 1973. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have not prompted draft legislation amid sufficient volunteer recruitment, though major escalation could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$251,086Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US military draft authorization in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, presidential proclamations, or national emergency declarations required to activate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent April announcements confirmed implementation of automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December, mandated by the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump in late 2025, but this merely streamlines the existing draft-eligible pool without reinstating the draft itself—maintaining the all-volunteer force operational since 1973. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have not prompted draft legislation amid sufficient volunteer recruitment, though major escalation could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы