Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$665,485 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
9%
$665,485 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$39,466 Объем
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
$5,584 Объем
6%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,216 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$665,485Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$665,485Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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