Recent US military planning for potential operations around Cuba, including Army Reserve support units for Southern Command within 90-120 days, has surfaced amid the Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign of sanctions, oil restrictions, and designations tied to Cuba's ties with adversaries. President Trump has publicly downplayed the need for force, stating that a deal is likely and that military action is not anticipated, while Secretary of State Rubio signaled openness to dialogue contingent on political changes in Havana. Cuba's economic strains, including power outages and reform efforts, continue alongside external support from China. Trader consensus on near-term action remains shaped by these mixed signals, with resolution hinging on any escalation in diplomatic standoffs or scheduled policy deadlines through late 2026.