The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba—following the Venezuela operation—has triggered an acute energy and economic crisis on the island, forming the core driver of current trader positioning. Subsequent sanctions on oil suppliers, indictments of former Cuban officials, and expanded surveillance flights plus naval assets such as the USS Nimitz in the Caribbean have sustained elevated rhetoric around regime pressure and possible strikes, yet senior officials have emphasized diplomatic channels, aid offers tied to reforms, and contingency planning over immediate kinetic action. Resource demands from the Iran conflict, Cuba’s internal responses including civilian armament distributions, and stalled but active backchannel talks reinforce the prevailing low-probability consensus on large-scale U.S. military operations by year-end despite ongoing SOUTHCOM readiness measures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенные действия США против Кубы с помощью...?
Военные действия США против Кубы с помощью...?
$7,273,744 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
19%
$7,273,744 Объем
31 декабря
$5,094,639 Объем
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba—following the Venezuela operation—has triggered an acute energy and economic crisis on the island, forming the core driver of current trader positioning. Subsequent sanctions on oil suppliers, indictments of former Cuban officials, and expanded surveillance flights plus naval assets such as the USS Nimitz in the Caribbean have sustained elevated rhetoric around regime pressure and possible strikes, yet senior officials have emphasized diplomatic channels, aid offers tied to reforms, and contingency planning over immediate kinetic action. Resource demands from the Iran conflict, Cuba’s internal responses including civilian armament distributions, and stalled but active backchannel talks reinforce the prevailing low-probability consensus on large-scale U.S. military operations by year-end despite ongoing SOUTHCOM readiness measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Объем
$7,273,744Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba—following the Venezuela operation—has triggered an acute energy and economic crisis on the island, forming the core driver of current trader positioning. Subsequent sanctions on oil suppliers, indictments of former Cuban officials, and expanded surveillance flights plus naval assets such as the USS Nimitz in the Caribbean have sustained elevated rhetoric around regime pressure and possible strikes, yet senior officials have emphasized diplomatic channels, aid offers tied to reforms, and contingency planning over immediate kinetic action. Resource demands from the Iran conflict, Cuba’s internal responses including civilian armament distributions, and stalled but active backchannel talks reinforce the prevailing low-probability consensus on large-scale U.S. military operations by year-end despite ongoing SOUTHCOM readiness measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$7,273,744Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba—following the Venezuela operation—has triggered an acute energy and economic crisis on the island, forming the core driver of current trader positioning. Subsequent sanctions on oil suppliers, indictments of former Cuban officials, and expanded surveillance flights plus naval assets such as the USS Nimitz in the Caribbean have sustained elevated rhetoric around regime pressure and possible strikes, yet senior officials have emphasized diplomatic channels, aid offers tied to reforms, and contingency planning over immediate kinetic action. Resource demands from the Iran conflict, Cuba’s internal responses including civilian armament distributions, and stalled but active backchannel talks reinforce the prevailing low-probability consensus on large-scale U.S. military operations by year-end despite ongoing SOUTHCOM readiness measures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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