Pope Leo XIV’s sustained catechesis series on Vatican II documents has anchored trader sentiment near even odds for a 2026 ecumenical council, signaling a priority on deeper implementation of the prior council rather than launching a new one. Recent family-focused gatherings marking the Amoris Laetitia anniversary and interreligious dialogue documents have fueled speculation about expanded synodal processes, yet official Vatican calendars and statements show no convocation in sight. Key swing factors include any surprise consistory announcements, synod follow-ups, or papal remarks on global church unity that could accelerate momentum—or reinforce the current focus on Vatican II fidelity before year-end deadlines.