Paper Rex and FULL SENSE remain the clear frontrunners for the VCT 2026 Pacific Stage 1 title because both squads posted dominant group-stage records and carried strong map-win streaks into playoffs. Paper Rex’s deep roster experience and consistent execution on multiple maps give it a narrow edge in trader pricing, while FULL SENSE’s undefeated early map run and recent upper-bracket resilience keep it within striking distance. Global Esports sits further back after a notable upper-semifinal upset over Paper Rex, yet its inconsistent group results and tougher lower-bracket path limit its implied probability. The tight spread between the top two reflects comparable recent form, head-to-head volatility, and the fact that any single series upset can still reshape the field before the May 17 grand final.