Nicolás Maduro leads the Venezuela leader end of 2026 market at 88.9% amid trader consensus that the established Chavista power structure and institutional control persist despite his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces. Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in as interim president, holds 8.0% as the constitutional successor who has engaged Washington on oil sector reforms, electoral council renewal, and a phased transition roadmap without a formal vacancy declaration. Recent developments include opposition leader María Corina Machado’s October return from exile, nationwide protests demanding elections, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s three-phase stabilization plan, yet no presidential vote is scheduled before year-end. These factors reinforce the view that continuity under Maduro’s circle outweighs near-term disruption risks through December 2026.