US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, leading to his wife’s detention on related charges and Delcy Rodríguez’s swearing-in as acting president days later with backing from the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and military command. This shift preserved core Chavista institutions and ministerial continuity, including key security figures, while sanctions eased and diplomatic ties with the United States resumed under a stabilization framework. No national elections have been scheduled through year-end 2026, and opposition figures such as María Corina Machado remain constrained by exile or limited domestic access. Traders therefore assign Maduro the highest probability of holding formal leadership status at resolution, reflecting institutional inertia and the absence of decisive transition mechanisms that would elevate alternatives.