Incumbent Republican Phil Scott seeks a sixth term against Democrat Amanda Janoo in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. Scott’s long record of bipartisan appeal and repeated large victories has anchored trader expectations for a Republican win, while Janoo’s narrow primary victory and emphasis on higher taxes for high earners and second-home owners introduce uncertainty about turnout and swing voters. Available July polling showed Scott ahead by double digits with elevated undecided shares, and forecasts project varying margins depending on late-cycle shifts. The spread across Republican victory buckets reflects ongoing questions about how national political crosscurrents, Scott’s down-ballot focus, and Janoo’s grassroots mobilization will affect the final vote margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах губернатора Вермонта
Маржа победы на выборах губернатора Вермонта
Республиканец 10–15% 21%
Республиканец 5-10% 17%
Республиканец 15-20% 13.6%
Республиканец 30%+ 11.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 30%+
7%
Республиканец 25–30%
8%
Республиканец 20-25%
9%
Республиканец 15-20%
14%
Республиканец 10–15%
21%
Республиканец 5-10%
13%
Республиканец 0-5%
11%
Победа демократа
9%
Республиканец 10–15% 21%
Республиканец 5-10% 17%
Республиканец 15-20% 13.6%
Республиканец 30%+ 11.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 30%+
$277 Объем
7%
Республиканец 25–30%
$175 Объем
8%
Республиканец 20-25%
$178 Объем
9%
Республиканец 15-20%
$483 Объем
14%
Республиканец 10–15%
$539 Объем
21%
Республиканец 5-10%
$606 Объем
13%
Республиканец 0-5%
$381 Объем
11%
Победа демократа
$423 Объем
9%
The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Phil Scott seeks a sixth term against Democrat Amanda Janoo in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. Scott’s long record of bipartisan appeal and repeated large victories has anchored trader expectations for a Republican win, while Janoo’s narrow primary victory and emphasis on higher taxes for high earners and second-home owners introduce uncertainty about turnout and swing voters. Available July polling showed Scott ahead by double digits with elevated undecided shares, and forecasts project varying margins depending on late-cycle shifts. The spread across Republican victory buckets reflects ongoing questions about how national political crosscurrents, Scott’s down-ballot focus, and Janoo’s grassroots mobilization will affect the final vote margin.
The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
Объем
$3,062Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Phil Scott seeks a sixth term against Democrat Amanda Janoo in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. Scott’s long record of bipartisan appeal and repeated large victories has anchored trader expectations for a Republican win, while Janoo’s narrow primary victory and emphasis on higher taxes for high earners and second-home owners introduce uncertainty about turnout and swing voters. Available July polling showed Scott ahead by double digits with elevated undecided shares, and forecasts project varying margins depending on late-cycle shifts. The spread across Republican victory buckets reflects ongoing questions about how national political crosscurrents, Scott’s down-ballot focus, and Janoo’s grassroots mobilization will affect the final vote margin.
The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$3,062Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Phil Scott seeks a sixth term against Democrat Amanda Janoo in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. Scott’s long record of bipartisan appeal and repeated large victories has anchored trader expectations for a Republican win, while Janoo’s narrow primary victory and emphasis on higher taxes for high earners and second-home owners introduce uncertainty about turnout and swing voters. Available July polling showed Scott ahead by double digits with elevated undecided shares, and forecasts project varying margins depending on late-cycle shifts. The spread across Republican victory buckets reflects ongoing questions about how national political crosscurrents, Scott’s down-ballot focus, and Janoo’s grassroots mobilization will affect the final vote margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Коннектикута в 2026 году с перевесом в 20%-25%?
18%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах губернатора Нью-Гэмпшира в 2026 году с перевесом в 12%-15%?
22%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 5-10%?
20%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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