Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a clear lead in Victorian primary and two-party-preferred voting for the 28 November election, with primary support around 30–33% compared to Labor’s 18–22% and One Nation’s 21–23%. This positioning underpins the 86% implied probability for Liberal–National in the Legislative Council market, where proportional representation across eight regions rewards stronger statewide performance. Labor’s primary vote slump since the July leadership transition and the absence of group voting tickets have limited its upper-house prospects, while minor parties remain competitive only for individual seats. With 18 days until polling, traders are pricing in the Coalition’s consistent advantage reflected in the latest Resolve and DemosAU surveys.