Recent Victorian polling shows a highly fragmented primary vote ahead of the November 28 election, with One Nation frequently leading or near the top at 22-27%, the Liberal-National Coalition around 26-32%, Labor 23-26%, and the Greens at 12-15%. This fragmentation, combined with Labor's July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, underpins trader views that Labor holds the strongest position to finish second. The Coalition's narrower path to second reflects its stronger primary showing in several surveys, while One Nation's low implied probability for second place aligns with its consistent first-place polling. Minor parties and the Greens face structural barriers from preference flows and limited seat prospects in the lower house. Scheduled campaign events and further leadership scrutiny in the final months could still shift relative standings before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLabor 74%
Liberal–National 20.1%
One Nation 7%
Greens <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
28 нояб. 2026 г.
Labor
74%
Liberal–National
20%
One Nation
7%
Greens
1%
Labor 74%
Liberal–National 20.1%
One Nation 7%
Greens <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
28 нояб. 2026 г.
Labor
$784 Объем
74%
Liberal–National
$233 Объем
20%
One Nation
$410 Объем
7%
Greens
$208 Объем
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polling shows a highly fragmented primary vote ahead of the November 28 election, with One Nation frequently leading or near the top at 22-27%, the Liberal-National Coalition around 26-32%, Labor 23-26%, and the Greens at 12-15%. This fragmentation, combined with Labor's July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, underpins trader views that Labor holds the strongest position to finish second. The Coalition's narrower path to second reflects its stronger primary showing in several surveys, while One Nation's low implied probability for second place aligns with its consistent first-place polling. Minor parties and the Greens face structural barriers from preference flows and limited seat prospects in the lower house. Scheduled campaign events and further leadership scrutiny in the final months could still shift relative standings before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Объем
$1,634Дата окончания
28 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polling shows a highly fragmented primary vote ahead of the November 28 election, with One Nation frequently leading or near the top at 22-27%, the Liberal-National Coalition around 26-32%, Labor 23-26%, and the Greens at 12-15%. This fragmentation, combined with Labor's July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, underpins trader views that Labor holds the strongest position to finish second. The Coalition's narrower path to second reflects its stronger primary showing in several surveys, while One Nation's low implied probability for second place aligns with its consistent first-place polling. Minor parties and the Greens face structural barriers from preference flows and limited seat prospects in the lower house. Scheduled campaign events and further leadership scrutiny in the final months could still shift relative standings before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Объем
$1,634Дата окончания
28 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Victorian polling shows a highly fragmented primary vote ahead of the November 28 election, with One Nation frequently leading or near the top at 22-27%, the Liberal-National Coalition around 26-32%, Labor 23-26%, and the Greens at 12-15%. This fragmentation, combined with Labor's July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, underpins trader views that Labor holds the strongest position to finish second. The Coalition's narrower path to second reflects its stronger primary showing in several surveys, while One Nation's low implied probability for second place aligns with its consistent first-place polling. Minor parties and the Greens face structural barriers from preference flows and limited seat prospects in the lower house. Scheduled campaign events and further leadership scrutiny in the final months could still shift relative standings before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
58%
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
81%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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