Recent Victorian state election polls show the Liberal-National Coalition leading primary votes near 31 percent, with One Nation and Labor clustered around 22 percent and the Greens near 14 percent. One Nation’s sustained rise over recent weeks, coinciding with Labor’s sharp primary-vote decline, has shifted trader consensus toward One Nation securing third place statewide. The Greens remain competitive for that position but trail in most surveys, while Labor’s weakness reduces its likelihood of finishing ahead of One Nation. With the November 28 election two weeks away, preference flows and final turnout in outer-suburban and regional seats will determine the exact ordering among the top minor parties.