Viktor Orbán’s position as former prime minister and Fidesz opposition leader, following his party’s defeat in the April 2026 election, provides substantial legal and political insulation against rapid arrest. Ongoing probes—including July 2026 raids on Fidesz-linked servers over National Cultural Fund grants and scrutiny of alleged procurement irregularities—have targeted officials and party structures but produced no charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Calls by lawyers or the Integrity Authority for investigations into Orbán-era decisions, such as the Ukrainian cash convoy incident, remain at the level of allegations or closed cases without triggering personal criminal proceedings. Hungary’s prosecution service and courts continue to operate under established procedures, while constitutional reforms and a new asset-recovery office focus on institutional changes rather than immediate high-profile detentions. Traders assign the 88% probability to “No” because these factors create significant barriers to arrest within the remaining months of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$34,423 Объем
$34,423 Объем
Да
$34,423 Объем
$34,423 Объем
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán’s position as former prime minister and Fidesz opposition leader, following his party’s defeat in the April 2026 election, provides substantial legal and political insulation against rapid arrest. Ongoing probes—including July 2026 raids on Fidesz-linked servers over National Cultural Fund grants and scrutiny of alleged procurement irregularities—have targeted officials and party structures but produced no charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Calls by lawyers or the Integrity Authority for investigations into Orbán-era decisions, such as the Ukrainian cash convoy incident, remain at the level of allegations or closed cases without triggering personal criminal proceedings. Hungary’s prosecution service and courts continue to operate under established procedures, while constitutional reforms and a new asset-recovery office focus on institutional changes rather than immediate high-profile detentions. Traders assign the 88% probability to “No” because these factors create significant barriers to arrest within the remaining months of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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