Viktor Orbán’s position as former prime minister and Fidesz opposition leader, following his party’s defeat in the April 2026 election, provides substantial legal and political insulation against rapid arrest. Ongoing probes—including July 2026 raids on Fidesz-linked servers over National Cultural Fund grants and scrutiny of alleged procurement irregularities—have targeted officials and party structures but produced no charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Calls by lawyers or the Integrity Authority for investigations into Orbán-era decisions, such as the Ukrainian cash convoy incident, remain at the level of allegations or closed cases without triggering personal criminal proceedings. Hungary’s prosecution service and courts continue to operate under established procedures, while constitutional reforms and a new asset-recovery office focus on institutional changes rather than immediate high-profile detentions. Traders assign the 88% probability to “No” because these factors create significant barriers to arrest within the remaining months of 2026.