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icon for WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Политика·Промежуточные выборы

WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей

icon for WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Политика·Промежуточные выборы

WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей

Победа демократа 38%

Республиканец 25-30% 36%

Республиканец 5-10% 35%

Республиканец 10-15% 32%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Победа демократа 38%

Республиканец 25-30% 36%

Республиканец 5-10% 35%

Республиканец 10-15% 32%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
icon for Республиканец 35%+

Республиканец 35%+

$0 Объем

31%

icon for Республиканец 30-35%

Республиканец 30-35%

$0 Объем

31%

icon for Республиканец 25-30%

Республиканец 25-30%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Республиканец 20-25%

Республиканец 20-25%

$0 Объем

32%

icon for Республиканцы 15-20%

Республиканцы 15-20%

$0 Объем

31%

icon for Республиканец 10-15%

Республиканец 10-15%

$0 Объем

32%

icon for Республиканец 5-10%

Республиканец 5-10%

$0 Объем

35%

icon for Республиканец 0-5%

Республиканец 0-5%

$0 Объем

31%

icon for Победа демократа

Победа демократа

$0 Объем

38%

The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open-seat race in Washington’s 4th congressional district pits Republican Amanda McKinney, the Trump-endorsed Yakima County commissioner who topped the August 4 top-two primary, against Democrat John Duresky, a retired Air Force major who advanced as the sole major Democratic contender. The solidly Republican district (R+10 PVI) favors McKinney in trader pricing, yet the evenly distributed margin buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout in rural central Washington counties, potential national midterm headwinds, and Duresky’s fundraising and veteran profile that could compress the final spread. Historical open-seat patterns and limited post-primary polling keep the exact victory margin contested among bettors, with no single development since the primary yet shifting consensus toward a decisive blowout or upset.

The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open-seat race in Washington’s 4th congressional district pits Republican Amanda McKinney, the Trump-endorsed Yakima County commissioner who topped the August 4 top-two primary, against Democrat John Duresky, a retired Air Force major who advanced as the sole major Democratic contender. The solidly Republican district (R+10 PVI) favors McKinney in trader pricing, yet the evenly distributed margin buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout in rural central Washington counties, potential national midterm headwinds, and Duresky’s fundraising and veteran profile that could compress the final spread. Historical open-seat patterns and limited post-primary polling keep the exact victory margin contested among bettors, with no single development since the primary yet shifting consensus toward a decisive blowout or upset.

The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 WA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...

Связанные

icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу WA-03 в 2026 году с отрывом 0%-3%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу WA-03 в 2026 году с отрывом 0%-3%?

38%
Да
icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу WA-06 в 2026 году с разницей в 25-30%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу WA-06 в 2026 году с разницей в 25-30%?

39%
Да
icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу WA-07 в 2026 году с результатом 50%-60%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу WA-07 в 2026 году с результатом 50%-60%?

38%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Победа демократа» с 38%, за ним следует «Республиканец 25-30%» с 36%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 38¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 2, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — «Победа демократа» с 38%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Республиканец 25-30%» с 36%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «WA-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.