Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with over 1,400 positive pools reported by late August—nearly double last year’s pace and spanning all boroughs since mid-June—has shaped trader sentiment toward moderate neuroinvasive disease totals. Official NYC Health Department data show just three confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents through late August, following the first human detection on August 19, amid intensified larviciding and control operations that have reduced adult mosquito populations substantially. Historical patterns indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases, with peak incidence typically occurring through September and October. These factors, combined with ongoing surveillance updates from the Department of Health, support the market-implied lead for 20–34 cases while capping expectations for extremes given control measures and reporting thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько случаев нейроинвазивной болезни Западного Нила будет зарегистрировано среди жителей Нью-Йорка в 2026 году?
Сколько случаев нейроинвазивной болезни Западного Нила будет зарегистрировано среди жителей Нью-Йорка в 2026 году?
От 20 до 34 46%
Менее 20 35%
От 35 до 49 22%
50 или более 2.7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
Менее 20
35%
От 20 до 34
46%
От 35 до 49
22%
50 или более
3%
От 20 до 34 46%
Менее 20 35%
От 35 до 49 22%
50 или более 2.7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 мар. 2027 г.
Менее 20
$1,788 Объем
35%
От 20 до 34
$2,828 Объем
46%
От 35 до 49
$1,550 Объем
22%
50 или более
$500 Объем
3%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with over 1,400 positive pools reported by late August—nearly double last year’s pace and spanning all boroughs since mid-June—has shaped trader sentiment toward moderate neuroinvasive disease totals. Official NYC Health Department data show just three confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents through late August, following the first human detection on August 19, amid intensified larviciding and control operations that have reduced adult mosquito populations substantially. Historical patterns indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases, with peak incidence typically occurring through September and October. These factors, combined with ongoing surveillance updates from the Department of Health, support the market-implied lead for 20–34 cases while capping expectations for extremes given control measures and reporting thresholds.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$6,666Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with over 1,400 positive pools reported by late August—nearly double last year’s pace and spanning all boroughs since mid-June—has shaped trader sentiment toward moderate neuroinvasive disease totals. Official NYC Health Department data show just three confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents through late August, following the first human detection on August 19, amid intensified larviciding and control operations that have reduced adult mosquito populations substantially. Historical patterns indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases, with peak incidence typically occurring through September and October. These factors, combined with ongoing surveillance updates from the Department of Health, support the market-implied lead for 20–34 cases while capping expectations for extremes given control measures and reporting thresholds.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Объем
$6,666Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with over 1,400 positive pools reported by late August—nearly double last year’s pace and spanning all boroughs since mid-June—has shaped trader sentiment toward moderate neuroinvasive disease totals. Official NYC Health Department data show just three confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents through late August, following the first human detection on August 19, amid intensified larviciding and control operations that have reduced adult mosquito populations substantially. Historical patterns indicate recent five-year averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases, with peak incidence typically occurring through September and October. These factors, combined with ongoing surveillance updates from the Department of Health, support the market-implied lead for 20–34 cases while capping expectations for extremes given control measures and reporting thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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