Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves across its Alpine and German catchment, continue to constrain navigation at key gauges such as Kaub. Slow recovery has begun with scattered precipitation, yet readings remain below normal thresholds for full barge loads as of early September. Trader consensus clusters tightly around mid-to-late September and October windows because autumn rainfall patterns remain the decisive variable, with limited separation between near-term stabilization and a more gradual rebound. A sustained wet period could accelerate normalization before mid-September, while extended dry conditions would favor October or later resolution. Seasonal base rates and live gauge trends keep probabilities closely matched ahead of the next major weather shifts.