U.S. and Mexican authorities have intensified pressure on major cartels through high-value bounties, indictments, and joint operations in 2026. Key developments include the February killing of CJNG founder El Mencho, which elevated Juan Carlos González (“Pelon”) as successor and prompted a $5 million reward for his capture, alongside the April arrest of CJNG figure Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”). For the Sinaloa Cartel, rewards up to $10 million target remaining Chapitos leaders Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, following prior arrests and the July life sentence of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Additional regional detentions, U.S. sanctions, and Mexican anti-corruption efforts under President Sheinbaum have disrupted networks and increased extradition prospects, with trader focus centered on whether these fugitives face arrest before year-end amid ongoing enforcement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?
Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?
$143,093 Объем
28 фев. 2026 г.
Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар
60%
Хесус Альфредо Гусман Саласар
42%
Рикардо Руис Веласко
49%
Уго Гонсало Мендоса Гайтана
34%
Хуан Карлос Валенсия Гонсалес
24%
Хуан Рейес Мехия Гонсалес
50%
Хуан Пабло Ледесма
48%
$143,093 Объем
Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар
$5,906 Объем
60%
Хесус Альфредо Гусман Саласар
$5,848 Объем
42%
Рикардо Руис Веласко
$60,997 Объем
49%
Уго Гонсало Мендоса Гайтана
$4,874 Объем
34%
Хуан Карлос Валенсия Гонсалес
$58,662 Объем
24%
Хуан Рейес Мехия Гонсалес
$200 Объем
50%
Хуан Пабло Ледесма
$658 Объем
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. and Mexican authorities have intensified pressure on major cartels through high-value bounties, indictments, and joint operations in 2026. Key developments include the February killing of CJNG founder El Mencho, which elevated Juan Carlos González (“Pelon”) as successor and prompted a $5 million reward for his capture, alongside the April arrest of CJNG figure Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”). For the Sinaloa Cartel, rewards up to $10 million target remaining Chapitos leaders Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, following prior arrests and the July life sentence of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Additional regional detentions, U.S. sanctions, and Mexican anti-corruption efforts under President Sheinbaum have disrupted networks and increased extradition prospects, with trader focus centered on whether these fugitives face arrest before year-end amid ongoing enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Объем
$143,093Дата окончания
28 фев. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. and Mexican authorities have intensified pressure on major cartels through high-value bounties, indictments, and joint operations in 2026. Key developments include the February killing of CJNG founder El Mencho, which elevated Juan Carlos González (“Pelon”) as successor and prompted a $5 million reward for his capture, alongside the April arrest of CJNG figure Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”). For the Sinaloa Cartel, rewards up to $10 million target remaining Chapitos leaders Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, following prior arrests and the July life sentence of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Additional regional detentions, U.S. sanctions, and Mexican anti-corruption efforts under President Sheinbaum have disrupted networks and increased extradition prospects, with trader focus centered on whether these fugitives face arrest before year-end amid ongoing enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$143,093Дата окончания
28 фев. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. and Mexican authorities have intensified pressure on major cartels through high-value bounties, indictments, and joint operations in 2026. Key developments include the February killing of CJNG founder El Mencho, which elevated Juan Carlos González (“Pelon”) as successor and prompted a $5 million reward for his capture, alongside the April arrest of CJNG figure Audias Flores Silva (“El Jardinero”). For the Sinaloa Cartel, rewards up to $10 million target remaining Chapitos leaders Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, following prior arrests and the July life sentence of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Additional regional detentions, U.S. sanctions, and Mexican anti-corruption efforts under President Sheinbaum have disrupted networks and increased extradition prospects, with trader focus centered on whether these fugitives face arrest before year-end amid ongoing enforcement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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