Skip to main content
icon for Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?
Геополитика·Картель нового поколения Халиско

Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?

icon for Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?
Геополитика·Картель нового поколения Халиско

Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?

$143,132 Объем

31 дек. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$143,132 Объем

Polymarket

Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар

$5,945 Объем

57%

Хесус Альфредо Гусман Саласар

$5,848 Объем

42%

Рикардо Руис Веласко

$60,997 Объем

51%

Уго Гонсало Мендоса Гайтана

$4,874 Объем

34%

Хуан Карлос Валенсия Гонсалес

$58,662 Объем

26%

Хуан Рейес Мехия Гонсалес

$200 Объем

48%

Хуан Пабло Ледесма

$658 Объем

57%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Mexico law enforcement coordination, including DEA and FBI indictments alongside substantial State Department rewards exceeding $100 million for CJNG figures, continues to shape prospects for additional 2026 arrests. Mexican forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in February and captured senior commander Audias “El Jardinero” Flores Silva in April, triggering localized violence and blockades. Recent DOJ actions target eight remaining CJNG fugitives with fresh charges, while Sinaloa Cartel remnants face ongoing scrutiny following Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada’s July sentencing. Extradition patterns from prior years and intelligence-driven operations remain key variables that could accelerate captures before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$143,132
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Mexico law enforcement coordination, including DEA and FBI indictments alongside substantial State Department rewards exceeding $100 million for CJNG figures, continues to shape prospects for additional 2026 arrests. Mexican forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in February and captured senior commander Audias “El Jardinero” Flores Silva in April, triggering localized violence and blockades. Recent DOJ actions target eight remaining CJNG fugitives with fresh charges, while Sinaloa Cartel remnants face ongoing scrutiny following Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada’s July sentencing. Extradition patterns from prior years and intelligence-driven operations remain key variables that could accelerate captures before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$143,132
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Связанные

icon for Мадуро признан виновным по всем пунктам?

Мадуро признан виновным по всем пунктам?

31%
Да
icon for Уйдет ли Лай Цин-дэ с поста президента Тайваня до 31 декабря 2026 года?

Уйдет ли Лай Цин-дэ с поста президента Тайваня до 31 декабря 2026 года?

4%
Да
icon for Вернётся ли судоходство в Ормузском проливе в норму к 31 декабря?

Вернётся ли судоходство в Ормузском проливе в норму к 31 декабря?

30%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 8 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Аудиас Флорес-Сильва» с 100%, за ним следует «Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар» с 57%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $143.1K с момента запуска рынка Feb 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?», просмотри 8 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?» — «Аудиас Флорес-Сильва» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Ивaн Арчивальдо Гусман Саласар» с 57%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Кого из лидеров картеля арестуют в 2026 году?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.