The September 2026 Swedish general election produced a hung parliament, with the centre-left opposition bloc (S, MP, V, C) securing 176 seats to the Tidö parties' 173. This narrow majority has driven trader consensus toward an S+MP+C arrangement at 42.4 percent, reflecting ongoing negotiations led by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson and the Centre Party's position as a pivotal swing actor unwilling to support certain partners. Recent developments, including the Centre Party's November 13 deadline for policy packages from both blocs, Sweden Democrats dropping ministerial demands, and the November 12 caretaker budget, continue to shape probabilities around red-green or cross-bloc options while highlighting procedural timelines for Riksdag votes on a new prime minister.