Current leaderboard leaders on Chatbot Arena sit just above 1500 Elo after recent frontier releases, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants, which has anchored the 57.5% market-implied probability that no model reaches 1550 this year. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects its consistent edge in agentic reasoning and coding benchmarks, while Google’s 11% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s competitive multimodal performance. OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid incremental gains that have yet to close the gap. Traders view further jumps of 40–50 Elo points by year-end as unlikely without unexpected scaling breakthroughs or major architecture shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Ни одной в 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.2%
$54,452 Объем
$54,452 Объем

Ни одной в 2026
57%

Anthropic
32%

11%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
2%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Ни одной в 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.2%
$54,452 Объем
$54,452 Объем

Ни одной в 2026
57%

Anthropic
32%

11%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
2%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard leaders on Chatbot Arena sit just above 1500 Elo after recent frontier releases, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 in mid-April and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants, which has anchored the 57.5% market-implied probability that no model reaches 1550 this year. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects its consistent edge in agentic reasoning and coding benchmarks, while Google’s 11% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s competitive multimodal performance. OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid incremental gains that have yet to close the gap. Traders view further jumps of 40–50 Elo points by year-end as unlikely without unexpected scaling breakthroughs or major architecture shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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