Trader consensus on NASDAQ at a 94.5% implied probability stems from Anthropic’s confirmed selection of the exchange for its planned IPO, as detailed in multiple September 2026 reports. This aligns with Nasdaq’s established role hosting major AI and tech listings, including SpaceX earlier in the year, and offers potential eligibility for the Nasdaq 100 index. The company’s focus on large language models and competitive positioning against peers like OpenAI further reinforces trader expectations for a tech-centric venue. While probabilities remain elevated, realistic challenges include last-minute regulatory delays, shifts in market conditions ahead of a possible November debut, or an unexpected strategic change in listing plans.