Several Republican-held seats in states with mixed or Democratic-leaning partisan profiles are polling within or near five points as of mid-September 2026, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly seven points alongside open seats and competitive candidate matchups. Key contests include Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson; Alaska, pitting Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola; Texas, matching Ken Paxton with James Talarico; Iowa; Ohio (special); and Michigan (open seat with Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers). Recent polling aggregates from sources such as Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics show margins under three points in these races, influenced by turnout patterns, economic voter priorities, and late-cycle advertising. Prediction markets price the highest probabilities of sub-five-point results in Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, reflecting trader assessment of these battlegrounds' volatility heading into the November 3 election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$62,797 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Техас
83%
Kansas
71%
Аляска
68%
Айова
62%
Мичиган
62%
Огайо (Специальные)
56%
Мэн
56%
Нью-Гэмпшир
60%
Небраска
48%
Джорджия
27%
Северная Каролина
26%
Флорида (специальные)
25%
Миннесота
23%
Нью-Мексико
12%
Монтана
8%
Колорадо
5%
Вирджиния
5%
South Carolina
52%
$62,797 Объем
Техас
$7,129 Объем
83%
Kansas
$556 Объем
71%
Аляска
$2,789 Объем
68%
Айова
$5,645 Объем
62%
Мичиган
$2,735 Объем
62%
Огайо (Специальные)
$3,936 Объем
56%
Мэн
$1,020 Объем
56%
Нью-Гэмпшир
$2,352 Объем
60%
Небраска
$3,687 Объем
48%
Джорджия
$1,394 Объем
27%
Северная Каролина
$5,753 Объем
26%
Флорида (специальные)
$2,450 Объем
25%
Миннесота
$9,715 Объем
23%
Нью-Мексико
$6,665 Объем
12%
Монтана
$2,919 Объем
8%
Колорадо
$2,599 Объем
5%
Вирджиния
$1,344 Объем
5%
South Carolina
$109 Объем
52%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held seats in states with mixed or Democratic-leaning partisan profiles are polling within or near five points as of mid-September 2026, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly seven points alongside open seats and competitive candidate matchups. Key contests include Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson; Alaska, pitting Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola; Texas, matching Ken Paxton with James Talarico; Iowa; Ohio (special); and Michigan (open seat with Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers). Recent polling aggregates from sources such as Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics show margins under three points in these races, influenced by turnout patterns, economic voter priorities, and late-cycle advertising. Prediction markets price the highest probabilities of sub-five-point results in Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, reflecting trader assessment of these battlegrounds' volatility heading into the November 3 election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$62,797Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held seats in states with mixed or Democratic-leaning partisan profiles are polling within or near five points as of mid-September 2026, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly seven points alongside open seats and competitive candidate matchups. Key contests include Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson; Alaska, pitting Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola; Texas, matching Ken Paxton with James Talarico; Iowa; Ohio (special); and Michigan (open seat with Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers). Recent polling aggregates from sources such as Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics show margins under three points in these races, influenced by turnout patterns, economic voter priorities, and late-cycle advertising. Prediction markets price the highest probabilities of sub-five-point results in Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, reflecting trader assessment of these battlegrounds' volatility heading into the November 3 election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$62,797Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Several Republican-held seats in states with mixed or Democratic-leaning partisan profiles are polling within or near five points as of mid-September 2026, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly seven points alongside open seats and competitive candidate matchups. Key contests include Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson; Alaska, pitting Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola; Texas, matching Ken Paxton with James Talarico; Iowa; Ohio (special); and Michigan (open seat with Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers). Recent polling aggregates from sources such as Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics show margins under three points in these races, influenced by turnout patterns, economic voter priorities, and late-cycle advertising. Prediction markets price the highest probabilities of sub-five-point results in Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, reflecting trader assessment of these battlegrounds' volatility heading into the November 3 election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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