**The high implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026 stems from the absence of any active political or institutional momentum toward secession.** KRG leadership, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, has prioritized remaining neutral amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran regional conflict, explicitly stating no desire to become involved and supporting Baghdad’s efforts to consolidate state control over armed groups. Economic pressures reinforce this stance: the KRG faces major trade disruptions (reportedly 70% in some estimates) and ongoing negotiations with the federal government over oil exports, budget shares, and salary payments, with recent tripartite deals aimed at resuming pipeline flows rather than advancing separation. Internal divisions between the KDP and PUK have delayed government formation and focused attention on domestic governance and stability measures, such as electricity projects. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath—territorial losses, Supreme Court rulings against secession, leadership changes, and international opposition from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran—continues to shape caution. No recent official statements, legislative actions, or scheduled referendums indicate preparations for a declaration, leaving traders to view the outcome as unlikely absent major, unforeseen shifts in federal relations or regional dynamics.