Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County with a D+26 partisan voting index. Incumbent Gwen Moore advanced easily through the August 11 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers and independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Moore’s consistent double-digit victories, including 74.8 percent in 2024, and the absence of major shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate dynamics keep trader consensus pricing Democratic win probabilities near 99 percent while spreading implied probability across margin buckets between 30 and 65 percent. Low volume on Republican victory outcomes reflects the structural barriers in the district. Upcoming events such as fall fundraising reports and any national midterm tailwinds could still adjust exact margin pricing before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWI-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей
WI-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Democrat 60-65% 39%
Democrat 50-55% 39%
Democrat 45-50% 37%
Democrat 0-30% 37%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 70%+
36%
Democrat 65-70%
32%
Democrat 60-65%
39%
Democrat 55-60%
31%
Democrat 50-55%
39%
Democrat 45-50%
37%
Democrat 40-45%
35%
Democrat 30-40%
35%
Democrat 0-30%
37%
Republican Wins
1%
Democrat 60-65% 39%
Democrat 50-55% 39%
Democrat 45-50% 37%
Democrat 0-30% 37%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 70%+
$0 Объем
36%
Democrat 65-70%
$0 Объем
32%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Объем
39%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Объем
31%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Объем
39%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Объем
37%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Объем
35%
Democrat 30-40%
$0 Объем
35%
Democrat 0-30%
$0 Объем
37%
Republican Wins
$5 Объем
1%
The 2026 WI-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County with a D+26 partisan voting index. Incumbent Gwen Moore advanced easily through the August 11 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers and independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Moore’s consistent double-digit victories, including 74.8 percent in 2024, and the absence of major shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate dynamics keep trader consensus pricing Democratic win probabilities near 99 percent while spreading implied probability across margin buckets between 30 and 65 percent. Low volume on Republican victory outcomes reflects the structural barriers in the district. Upcoming events such as fall fundraising reports and any national midterm tailwinds could still adjust exact margin pricing before Election Day.
The 2026 WI-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Объем
$5Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WI-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County with a D+26 partisan voting index. Incumbent Gwen Moore advanced easily through the August 11 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers and independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Moore’s consistent double-digit victories, including 74.8 percent in 2024, and the absence of major shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate dynamics keep trader consensus pricing Democratic win probabilities near 99 percent while spreading implied probability across margin buckets between 30 and 65 percent. Low volume on Republican victory outcomes reflects the structural barriers in the district. Upcoming events such as fall fundraising reports and any national midterm tailwinds could still adjust exact margin pricing before Election Day.
The 2026 WI-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee County with a D+26 partisan voting index. Incumbent Gwen Moore advanced easily through the August 11 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers and independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Moore’s consistent double-digit victories, including 74.8 percent in 2024, and the absence of major shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate dynamics keep trader consensus pricing Democratic win probabilities near 99 percent while spreading implied probability across margin buckets between 30 and 65 percent. Low volume on Republican victory outcomes reflects the structural barriers in the district. Upcoming events such as fall fundraising reports and any national midterm tailwinds could still adjust exact margin pricing before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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