**Recent polling and the structure of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum explain the 93% trader consensus against an independence vote this year.** A May 2026 Ipsos survey found only 19% of Albertans would support proceeding toward a binding separation referendum (down 10 points from January), while 72% favored remaining in Canada. Premier Danielle Smith’s government added a non-binding preliminary question to the multi-issue referendum asking whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote. Citizen-led petitions for a direct independence question faced legal setbacks, including a May court ruling requiring First Nations consultation before signatures could trigger a referendum. These factors—declining separatist sentiment, the referendum’s limited scope, and procedural hurdles—have kept the probability of any 2026 independence outcome very low in trader assessments. No major developments since the June polling have reversed this trend.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$253,859 Объем
$253,859 Объем
Да
$253,859 Объем
$253,859 Объем
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and the structure of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum explain the 93% trader consensus against an independence vote this year.** A May 2026 Ipsos survey found only 19% of Albertans would support proceeding toward a binding separation referendum (down 10 points from January), while 72% favored remaining in Canada. Premier Danielle Smith’s government added a non-binding preliminary question to the multi-issue referendum asking whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future binding vote. Citizen-led petitions for a direct independence question faced legal setbacks, including a May court ruling requiring First Nations consultation before signatures could trigger a referendum. These factors—declining separatist sentiment, the referendum’s limited scope, and procedural hurdles—have kept the probability of any 2026 independence outcome very low in trader assessments. No major developments since the June polling have reversed this trend.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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