Recent court rulings have blocked separatist efforts to force an independence referendum in Alberta, with a May 2026 decision quashing a petition backed by over 300,000 signatures on grounds that First Nations treaty rights under section 35 of the Constitution were not properly consulted. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has stated she does not support separation, has pledged an appeal while scheduling an October 19, 2026, province-wide vote on nine non-constitutional questions focused on immigration and provincial powers instead. Polling consistently shows support for independence between 18% and 30%, well below thresholds for passage in a potential vote. These procedural and political barriers have reinforced trader consensus around a low probability of any independence ballot occurring this year.