**Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation, followed by the party's May 2026 Farrer byelection win, has highlighted growing volatility among Coalition MPs amid declining primary votes.** Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated a possible switch in May 2026 after the Coalition's weak performance in that contest, citing internal frustrations, while One Nation's rising profile post-2025 federal election has drawn ongoing speculation about further crossovers. Trader consensus at 58% for an additional sitting MP joining by year-end reflects these signals of discontent within Nationals ranks and the party's expanding lower-house presence, tempered by the absence of confirmed moves since Joyce and Boyce's continued leadership activities within his original party. Upcoming federal dynamics and Coalition polling trends remain key variables that could influence further shifts before December.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПрисоединится ли еще один действующий австралийский депутат к One Nation в 2026 году?
Присоединится ли еще один действующий австралийский депутат к One Nation в 2026 году?
Да
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation, followed by the party's May 2026 Farrer byelection win, has highlighted growing volatility among Coalition MPs amid declining primary votes.** Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated a possible switch in May 2026 after the Coalition's weak performance in that contest, citing internal frustrations, while One Nation's rising profile post-2025 federal election has drawn ongoing speculation about further crossovers. Trader consensus at 58% for an additional sitting MP joining by year-end reflects these signals of discontent within Nationals ranks and the party's expanding lower-house presence, tempered by the absence of confirmed moves since Joyce and Boyce's continued leadership activities within his original party. Upcoming federal dynamics and Coalition polling trends remain key variables that could influence further shifts before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Объем
$172Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation, followed by the party's May 2026 Farrer byelection win, has highlighted growing volatility among Coalition MPs amid declining primary votes.** Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated a possible switch in May 2026 after the Coalition's weak performance in that contest, citing internal frustrations, while One Nation's rising profile post-2025 federal election has drawn ongoing speculation about further crossovers. Trader consensus at 58% for an additional sitting MP joining by year-end reflects these signals of discontent within Nationals ranks and the party's expanding lower-house presence, tempered by the absence of confirmed moves since Joyce and Boyce's continued leadership activities within his original party. Upcoming federal dynamics and Coalition polling trends remain key variables that could influence further shifts before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$172Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation, followed by the party's May 2026 Farrer byelection win, has highlighted growing volatility among Coalition MPs amid declining primary votes.** Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated a possible switch in May 2026 after the Coalition's weak performance in that contest, citing internal frustrations, while One Nation's rising profile post-2025 federal election has drawn ongoing speculation about further crossovers. Trader consensus at 58% for an additional sitting MP joining by year-end reflects these signals of discontent within Nationals ranks and the party's expanding lower-house presence, tempered by the absence of confirmed moves since Joyce and Boyce's continued leadership activities within his original party. Upcoming federal dynamics and Coalition polling trends remain key variables that could influence further shifts before December.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы