France's two-round presidential system requires an absolute majority above 50% of valid votes for any candidate to win outright in the first round on April 18, 2027, a threshold unmet in modern elections. Recent October 2026 polling averages show Marine Le Pen leading at 33-36%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon near 17% and other contenders such as Raphaël Glucksmann or Édouard Philippe in the low-to-mid teens, leaving the vote fragmented across multiple blocs. Forecasts place the probability of an outright first-round victory near 1%, consistent with historical patterns where even strong incumbents or frontrunners have required runoffs. This structural and polling reality underpins the 94% trader consensus on no candidate securing a first-round win.