**Recent reports indicate Apple has tested CXMT DRAM across iPhones and MacBooks while holding preliminary talks focused on devices sold in China, driven by an AI-fueled memory shortage.** However, CXMT remains on U.S. blacklists over national security concerns tied to its Chinese government and military links, requiring White House or agency approval that has not been secured. Apple continues lobbying efforts, but any deal faces political backlash, reputational risks, and restrictions limiting use to the domestic Chinese market rather than global supply chains. These regulatory and geopolitical hurdles—compounded by established relationships with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability of no purchase in 2026. Traders appear to view current testing and talks as exploratory steps unlikely to overcome approval barriers or expand meaningfully before year-end, despite supply pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include further regulatory decisions or any public confirmation of scaled sourcing.