Banksy’s verified Instagram account (@banksy) serves primarily as a confirmation channel for new street pieces rather than a regular feed, with posts appearing only when the artist authenticates fresh murals, installations, or videos. As of early September 2026, no high-profile London work, political statement piece, or other catalyst has surfaced in recent weeks to trigger an upload, following the typical pattern of extended quiet periods after earlier 2026 activity such as the Waterloo Place statue. Traders therefore assign the 72.5% implied probability to “No” by September 30, reflecting the absence of any imminent release schedule or guild-like precursor signals that would shift momentum toward a post. A surprise unveiling in the coming weeks remains the key swing factor that could alter the consensus.