**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects the absence of any magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California through late September 2026, with only about three months left in the year.** USGS data show the largest events so far this year reached just M5.6, while recent activity consists of frequent small quakes mostly below M3.0 and no M4.0+ events in the past 30 days. Major earthquakes of this size occur infrequently—roughly every 5–10 years on average historically—and lack the foreshock sequences or strain indicators that would signal an imminent large rupture on faults such as the San Andreas. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected multi-segment rupture or a rapid aftershock sequence in the final quarter, though current monitoring shows no such precursors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли в Калифорнии землетрясение магнитудой 7,0 или выше в 2026 году?
Будет ли в Калифорнии землетрясение магнитудой 7,0 или выше в 2026 году?
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects the absence of any magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California through late September 2026, with only about three months left in the year.** USGS data show the largest events so far this year reached just M5.6, while recent activity consists of frequent small quakes mostly below M3.0 and no M4.0+ events in the past 30 days. Major earthquakes of this size occur infrequently—roughly every 5–10 years on average historically—and lack the foreshock sequences or strain indicators that would signal an imminent large rupture on faults such as the San Andreas.
Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected multi-segment rupture or a rapid aftershock sequence in the final quarter, though current monitoring shows no such precursors.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Объем
$7,256Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects the absence of any magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California through late September 2026, with only about three months left in the year.** USGS data show the largest events so far this year reached just M5.6, while recent activity consists of frequent small quakes mostly below M3.0 and no M4.0+ events in the past 30 days. Major earthquakes of this size occur infrequently—roughly every 5–10 years on average historically—and lack the foreshock sequences or strain indicators that would signal an imminent large rupture on faults such as the San Andreas.
Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected multi-segment rupture or a rapid aftershock sequence in the final quarter, though current monitoring shows no such precursors.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Объем
$7,256Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects the absence of any magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in California through late September 2026, with only about three months left in the year.** USGS data show the largest events so far this year reached just M5.6, while recent activity consists of frequent small quakes mostly below M3.0 and no M4.0+ events in the past 30 days. Major earthquakes of this size occur infrequently—roughly every 5–10 years on average historically—and lack the foreshock sequences or strain indicators that would signal an imminent large rupture on faults such as the San Andreas. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected multi-segment rupture or a rapid aftershock sequence in the final quarter, though current monitoring shows no such precursors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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