Canada’s federal government has sharply reduced temporary resident admissions under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals from roughly 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 this year while stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. These measures accelerate outflows of non-permanent residents, whose population share has already fallen from a 2024 peak above 7 percent. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, including a 55,000 drop in Q1, following the first annual contraction recorded in 2025. Parliamentary Budget Office projections anticipate flat or modestly negative growth for the full year as net international migration turns negative, outweighing natural increase and permanent inflows. Traders price an 86 percent chance that this contraction exceeds any prior annual drop.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли сокращение населения Канады в 2026 году самым большим за всю историю наблюдений?
Будет ли сокращение населения Канады в 2026 году самым большим за всю историю наблюдений?
Да
85% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
29 апр. 2027 г.
Да
85% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
29 апр. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has sharply reduced temporary resident admissions under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals from roughly 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 this year while stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. These measures accelerate outflows of non-permanent residents, whose population share has already fallen from a 2024 peak above 7 percent. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, including a 55,000 drop in Q1, following the first annual contraction recorded in 2025. Parliamentary Budget Office projections anticipate flat or modestly negative growth for the full year as net international migration turns negative, outweighing natural increase and permanent inflows. Traders price an 86 percent chance that this contraction exceeds any prior annual drop.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Объем
$1,813Дата окончания
30 апр. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has sharply reduced temporary resident admissions under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals from roughly 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 this year while stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. These measures accelerate outflows of non-permanent residents, whose population share has already fallen from a 2024 peak above 7 percent. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, including a 55,000 drop in Q1, following the first annual contraction recorded in 2025. Parliamentary Budget Office projections anticipate flat or modestly negative growth for the full year as net international migration turns negative, outweighing natural increase and permanent inflows. Traders price an 86 percent chance that this contraction exceeds any prior annual drop.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,813Дата окончания
30 апр. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s federal government has sharply reduced temporary resident admissions under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals from roughly 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 this year while stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually. These measures accelerate outflows of non-permanent residents, whose population share has already fallen from a 2024 peak above 7 percent. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, including a 55,000 drop in Q1, following the first annual contraction recorded in 2025. Parliamentary Budget Office projections anticipate flat or modestly negative growth for the full year as net international migration turns negative, outweighing natural increase and permanent inflows. Traders price an 86 percent chance that this contraction exceeds any prior annual drop.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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