Carlos Alcaraz’s right wrist injury, sustained in April 2026 at the Barcelona Open, has kept the defending U.S. Open champion sidelined for more than four months, causing him to miss the French Open, Wimbledon, and the Canadian Open. Recent light training updates show gradual progress, but he withdrew from the Cincinnati Masters 1000—his planned return event starting August 13—to prioritize full fitness ahead of the hard-court major beginning August 31. Early 2026 results demonstrated strong form, including an Australian Open title, yet the extended absence raises questions about match readiness, intensity tolerance, and potential re-injury risk on a surface that historically suits his game. Traders price the “Yes” outcome at 63 percent to reflect confirmed intent and positive recovery signals tempered by the lack of competitive play and cautious medical approach.