Alcaraz has remained sidelined since April with a right wrist tenosynovitis injury, prompting withdrawals from Montreal and Cincinnati while he prioritizes rehabilitation over rushed returns. As the defending champion and world No. 2 on the US Open entry list, he retains a path to participate starting August 30, with the Winston-Salem Open as a potential final tune-up. Recent reports note gradual increases in practice intensity, yet the extended absence raises concerns about match readiness for best-of-five sets. Trader consensus at 62.5% for a "Yes" outcome reflects the balance between his status as a top seed and the documented recovery timeline, with any confirmed participation or further setbacks likely to shift implied probabilities quickly.