St. Clair has maintained primary physical custody of Romulus since his September 2024 birth in New York, where she filed for sole legal custody and paternity confirmation in early 2025. Court records and verified reports show the child has resided with her, with Musk’s documented involvement limited to financial support and infrequent visits amid ongoing disputes over NDAs and payments. Musk’s January 2026 public statement about seeking full custody tied to St. Clair’s public statements on transgender issues has not produced reported court rulings or status changes nearly nine months later. New York family court precedents emphasize preserving the existing caregiving arrangement absent clear evidence of detriment, supporting trader consensus around the 94.7% “No” odds. An upset would require substantiated findings of unfitness or major new evidence shifting judicial priorities before resolution.