Geopolitical tensions, including volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts involving Iran, have lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel as of mid-September 2026, driving the national average regular gasoline price to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon according to AAA data through September 18. This marks a rise of roughly 16 cents week-over-week and more than $1.20 year-over-year, with refining disruptions and strong seasonal demand amplifying the increase. State-level averages reflect these pressures, with the lowest readings in Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana hovering near $3.92–$3.94—still above the $3.75 threshold. Market-implied odds for any state dipping below that level in the near term hinge on potential supply relief from eased Middle East tensions or inventory builds, though current fundamentals point to sustained elevation absent major policy or weather shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
20 сентября
48%
30 сентября
50%
31 октября
16%
$316 Объем
20 сентября
$108 Объем
48%
30 сентября
$0 Объем
50%
31 октября
$208 Объем
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Geopolitical tensions, including volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts involving Iran, have lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel as of mid-September 2026, driving the national average regular gasoline price to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon according to AAA data through September 18. This marks a rise of roughly 16 cents week-over-week and more than $1.20 year-over-year, with refining disruptions and strong seasonal demand amplifying the increase. State-level averages reflect these pressures, with the lowest readings in Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana hovering near $3.92–$3.94—still above the $3.75 threshold. Market-implied odds for any state dipping below that level in the near term hinge on potential supply relief from eased Middle East tensions or inventory builds, though current fundamentals point to sustained elevation absent major policy or weather shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Открытие рынка: Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET
Объем
$316Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Geopolitical tensions, including volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts involving Iran, have lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel as of mid-September 2026, driving the national average regular gasoline price to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon according to AAA data through September 18. This marks a rise of roughly 16 cents week-over-week and more than $1.20 year-over-year, with refining disruptions and strong seasonal demand amplifying the increase. State-level averages reflect these pressures, with the lowest readings in Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana hovering near $3.92–$3.94—still above the $3.75 threshold. Market-implied odds for any state dipping below that level in the near term hinge on potential supply relief from eased Middle East tensions or inventory builds, though current fundamentals point to sustained elevation absent major policy or weather shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Объем
$316Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions, including volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts involving Iran, have lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel as of mid-September 2026, driving the national average regular gasoline price to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon according to AAA data through September 18. This marks a rise of roughly 16 cents week-over-week and more than $1.20 year-over-year, with refining disruptions and strong seasonal demand amplifying the increase. State-level averages reflect these pressures, with the lowest readings in Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana hovering near $3.92–$3.94—still above the $3.75 threshold. Market-implied odds for any state dipping below that level in the near term hinge on potential supply relief from eased Middle East tensions or inventory builds, though current fundamentals point to sustained elevation absent major policy or weather shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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