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Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

icon for Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

11% вероятность
Polymarket

$14,890 Объем

11% вероятность
Polymarket

$14,890 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.**Strong trader consensus favoring “No” stems from George R.R. Martin’s long pattern of stalled progress and competing commitments.** As of January 2026 he reported roughly 1,100 manuscript pages completed—unchanged from prior years—while continuing convention appearances, television adaptations such as *A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms*, and other side projects that have historically slowed work on *The Winds of Winter*. Mid-year 2026 has brought only minor blog posts and fan speculation rather than any publisher-backed release-date reveal, and past statements indicate a major announcement would be unmistakable when it arrives. With more than half the calendar already passed and no surge in reported output or narrowed focus, traders see little realistic window for a credible 2026 announcement before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Объем
$14,890
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.**Strong trader consensus favoring “No” stems from George R.R. Martin’s long pattern of stalled progress and competing commitments.** As of January 2026 he reported roughly 1,100 manuscript pages completed—unchanged from prior years—while continuing convention appearances, television adaptations such as *A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms*, and other side projects that have historically slowed work on *The Winds of Winter*. Mid-year 2026 has brought only minor blog posts and fan speculation rather than any publisher-backed release-date reveal, and past statements indicate a major announcement would be unmistakable when it arrives. With more than half the calendar already passed and no surge in reported output or narrowed focus, traders see little realistic window for a credible 2026 announcement before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Объем
$14,890
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

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Текущая вероятность для «Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?» составляет 11% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 11%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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