Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia principles under the Islamic Penal Code, which criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The Guardian Council vets all legislation for compliance with these religious standards, while the conservative-dominated Majlis shows no movement toward reform. Recent leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has focused institutional priorities on security and succession rather than social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% No reflects these entrenched structural barriers, with only an improbable regime change or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, offering any realistic path to alteration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
2% вероятность
$79,172 Объем
$79,172 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$79,172 Объем
$79,172 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia principles under the Islamic Penal Code, which criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The Guardian Council vets all legislation for compliance with these religious standards, while the conservative-dominated Majlis shows no movement toward reform. Recent leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has focused institutional priorities on security and succession rather than social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% No reflects these entrenched structural barriers, with only an improbable regime change or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, offering any realistic path to alteration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Объем
$79,172Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia principles under the Islamic Penal Code, which criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The Guardian Council vets all legislation for compliance with these religious standards, while the conservative-dominated Majlis shows no movement toward reform. Recent leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has focused institutional priorities on security and succession rather than social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% No reflects these entrenched structural barriers, with only an improbable regime change or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, offering any realistic path to alteration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$79,172Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal system grounded in Sharia principles under the Islamic Penal Code, which criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage. The Guardian Council vets all legislation for compliance with these religious standards, while the conservative-dominated Majlis shows no movement toward reform. Recent leadership transition following the 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has focused institutional priorities on security and succession rather than social policy shifts. Trader consensus at 98% No reflects these entrenched structural barriers, with only an improbable regime change or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, offering any realistic path to alteration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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