**Recent referendum results show "Leave" securing majorities in multiple rural Alberta electoral divisions, supporting the 89% implied probability for Yes.** The October 19, 2026, non-binding vote asked whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin the constitutional process for a future binding independence referendum. Province-wide tallies favor "remain" by roughly 75-25%, yet riding-level counts reveal slim "Leave" majorities in areas such as Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and Central Peace-Notley, with additional rural divisions showing competitive or leading support for the referendum option. These localized outcomes align with longstanding patterns of stronger separatist sentiment outside major urban centers and explain why prediction-market traders assign high odds to "Leave" winning at least one division. Full certified results from Elections Alberta will determine final resolution, but partial counts already confirm the presence of such victories.