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Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

icon for Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

25% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
25% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).**Michigan voters face an automatic constitutional convention question on the November 3, 2026 ballot, the fourth such referendum since the 1963 Constitution took effect.** The measure asks whether to convene elected delegates in 2027 for a general revision, with any proposals then submitted to voters for ratification. Historical precedent strongly shapes current trader sentiment, as voters rejected prior calls by wide margins—77% no in 1978, 72% in 1994, and 67% in 2010—reflecting consistent preference for the existing framework over a full rewrite. Organized opposition from education and labor groups, including the Michigan Education Association, has already mobilized against the proposal, citing risks that a convention could reopen debates on public schools, collective bargaining, and other protected provisions. Targeted constitutional amendments via petition or legislative referral remain available as an alternative path for specific changes, further reducing perceived need for a convention. With the question appearing automatically every 16 years and limited recent polling or momentum for approval, trader consensus at 68% for rejection aligns with these established patterns and institutional preferences.

Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Объем
$6,313
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).**Michigan voters face an automatic constitutional convention question on the November 3, 2026 ballot, the fourth such referendum since the 1963 Constitution took effect.** The measure asks whether to convene elected delegates in 2027 for a general revision, with any proposals then submitted to voters for ratification. Historical precedent strongly shapes current trader sentiment, as voters rejected prior calls by wide margins—77% no in 1978, 72% in 1994, and 67% in 2010—reflecting consistent preference for the existing framework over a full rewrite. Organized opposition from education and labor groups, including the Michigan Education Association, has already mobilized against the proposal, citing risks that a convention could reopen debates on public schools, collective bargaining, and other protected provisions. Targeted constitutional amendments via petition or legislative referral remain available as an alternative path for specific changes, further reducing perceived need for a convention. With the question appearing automatically every 16 years and limited recent polling or momentum for approval, trader consensus at 68% for rejection aligns with these established patterns and institutional preferences.

Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Объем
$6,313
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).

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Текущая вероятность для «Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?» составляет 25% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 25%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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