Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыпустит ли OpenAI социальную сеть в 2026 году?
Выпустит ли OpenAI социальную сеть в 2026 году?
Да
$45,986 Объем
$45,986 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$45,986 Объем
$45,986 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Объем
$45,986Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$45,986Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 57.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the April 2026 shutdown of its Sora app—a short-form video platform for AI-generated content—just months after launch amid user disengagement, deepfake safety concerns, and content moderation backlash. Early 2025 reports of an internal X-like prototype with ChatGPT image feeds and January biometric verification rumors sparked optimism, peaking Yes odds near 70% in early May, but persistent silence from OpenAI, alongside its May 12 pivot to the Deployment Company for enterprise AI scaling, signals deprioritization of consumer social platforms. With seven months left, key catalysts include developer conference announcements or embedded social features in upcoming GPT models, though historical product delays temper expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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