**Rebel groups, primarily the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM, have conducted coordinated offensives across northern and central Mali since April 2026, seizing Kidal and gaining partial footholds in Gao region amid fighting with Malian forces backed by Russian Africa Corps elements.** FLA statements and reports indicate intent to fully capture Gao as a next objective after earlier gains, with some claims of significant urban control while government troops retained the airport. Fresh attacks on Gao and nearby sites in early July 2026 triggered clashes, but the Malian army reported repelling the assaults, killing attackers, and restoring control in affected areas. These developments sustain trader skepticism about a decisive rebel takeover by year-end, as ongoing resistance, reinforcements, and the contested nature of Gao limit the probability of complete capture despite rebel momentum in parts of the north. The market reflects uncertainty over whether rebels can overcome sustained counteroperations in the remaining months.