**Recent rebel offensives by the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM ally have intensified pressure around Gao without producing a seizure of the city itself.** Coordinated attacks in April and July 2026 recaptured Kidal and targeted positions or convoys in the Gao region, including ambushes near Anéfis and Tabrichat that inflicted notable casualties on Malian forces and Russian Africa Corps partners. Malian authorities, however, reported repelling assaults on Gao proper, breaking sieges through air and ground operations, and restoring control over key routes. Prisoner releases by rebels in August signal ongoing negotiations rather than territorial consolidation. These patterns—effective defensive stands by the junta-backed forces despite tactical rebel gains elsewhere in the north—underpin trader expectations that a full capture by year-end remains unlikely amid continued military reinforcements and counterstrikes.