The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and blocking any broad transition. Reza Pahlavi, positioned in exile as a potential secular democratic figurehead, has seen his campaign lose momentum amid donor dissatisfaction, fragmented opposition coordination, and absence of decisive international backing. Polling shows divided domestic views, with support around one-third and questions over legitimacy tied to his long absence and institutional barriers in Iran's theocratic system. Trader consensus at 97% against reflects these structural constraints and the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026. Narrow paths that could still shift odds include successful coordinated uprisings or negotiated power-sharing arrangements before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВозглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?
Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$11,702,210 Объем
$11,702,210 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$11,702,210 Объем
$11,702,210 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and blocking any broad transition. Reza Pahlavi, positioned in exile as a potential secular democratic figurehead, has seen his campaign lose momentum amid donor dissatisfaction, fragmented opposition coordination, and absence of decisive international backing. Polling shows divided domestic views, with support around one-third and questions over legitimacy tied to his long absence and institutional barriers in Iran's theocratic system. Trader consensus at 97% against reflects these structural constraints and the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026. Narrow paths that could still shift odds include successful coordinated uprisings or negotiated power-sharing arrangements before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Объем
$11,702,210Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and blocking any broad transition. Reza Pahlavi, positioned in exile as a potential secular democratic figurehead, has seen his campaign lose momentum amid donor dissatisfaction, fragmented opposition coordination, and absence of decisive international backing. Polling shows divided domestic views, with support around one-third and questions over legitimacy tied to his long absence and institutional barriers in Iran's theocratic system. Trader consensus at 97% against reflects these structural constraints and the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026. Narrow paths that could still shift odds include successful coordinated uprisings or negotiated power-sharing arrangements before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$11,702,210Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic consolidated power after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, with security forces containing protests and blocking any broad transition. Reza Pahlavi, positioned in exile as a potential secular democratic figurehead, has seen his campaign lose momentum amid donor dissatisfaction, fragmented opposition coordination, and absence of decisive international backing. Polling shows divided domestic views, with support around one-third and questions over legitimacy tied to his long absence and institutional barriers in Iran's theocratic system. Trader consensus at 97% against reflects these structural constraints and the regime's demonstrated resilience through mid-2026. Narrow paths that could still shift odds include successful coordinated uprisings or negotiated power-sharing arrangements before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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