Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine continue to absorb the bulk of its combat power, limiting immediate conventional threats to NATO territory while fueling hybrid activities such as airspace probes and pressure on Belarus. In mid-May 2026, Ukrainian President Zelensky publicly detailed Russian reconnaissance and planning for strikes or incursions that could extend from Belarusian territory into northern Ukraine or directly target a NATO member, citing recent intelligence on Moscow's efforts to draw Minsk deeper into the conflict. Earlier in May, Russian drones triggered alerts over Latvia, prompting NATO fighter scrambles and highlighting risks of miscalculation along the eastern flank. NATO allies have responded with intensified exercises, naval initiatives in the Baltic and Arctic, and warnings from intelligence services that Moscow may seek limited challenges to alliance cohesion once fighting in Ukraine concludes. These developments sustain trader focus on escalation thresholds, hybrid tactics, and the timeline for any potential direct confrontation.